Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Drop of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
The Wolves squad recorded 10 fewer scores from open play compared to this point the previous campaign.

One of the biggest stories of the EPL season so far is the reduction of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way sides are finding goals increasingly from set-plays instead.

Comparing goal sources to the initial 11 matches the prior season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 fewer altogether.

Examining the bigger picture, efforts on goal clubs are making show an incredible drop of 370 in open play than this time previously.

And despite the significant rise in set-play finishes, there have actually been a mere two extra shots generated from these situations outside of spot-kicks, indicating the efficiency teams are at devising strategies to score from dead-ball situations.

Goal Averages Reveal an Interesting Narrative

Over 300 goals scored in 110 games up to now works out at nearly 2.75 goals each match, if this persists for the whole season might be the lowest for since 2020-21, back in 2020-21 (2.69 per game).

But just 196 scores scored in open play averages out 1.78 each match and is tracking to be the least for 16 seasons, from 16 years ago (1.76 per game).

The 2009-10 season additionally represents the sole English top-flight campaign to witness scoring at a higher rate from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 per game).

What Clubs Bear the Most Responsibility?

When it comes to scoring from open play, Wolves have seen the largest decline, scoring a mere four in 11 games, 10 less than this point last season.

Excluding Wolves, the EPL's fall in open play goals is predominantly a London thing, with half of the capital's seven sides scoring at least five fewer goals from open play than the prior season.

In fairness, that's largely down to them scoring numerous scores at the early stages of the previous campaign instead of them really struggling to score in open play this campaign.

Conversely City have recorded the most significant jump, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored to date coming in open play.

Set-Piece Success

Looking at the promoted teams with the teams that went down that they superseded. Play-off winners the Black Cats have scored an additional three scores in open play than Southampton managed in matchday 11 en route to the drop last season.

Regarding goals scored from set-pieces (not counting spot-kicks), the Gunners and Chelsea have recorded the most significant jump, with the two clubs making up for the five fewer scores that they've scored in open play with identical figures from dead-ball situations.

Man United have scored two times more goals from set-plays as they did in the 11 games last season ahead of their coach took charge, while Sunderland once more prove more successful at scoring than the club they replaced they superseded.

Man City don't seem to have got the memo about netting additional goals from set-pieces, because they've recorded a reduction of three than the previous campaign, similar to the Reds, even if this may result from the change in style they have tried to implement.

League-Wide Trends

Six sides – the Gunners, the Blues, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – represent the current campaign's top trend-setters by netting less scores from open play and additional from set-plays, while Man City represent the sole team to defy the pattern so far by doing the contrary.

It will be fascinating to watch if teams continue to depend greatly on set-plays as matches continue or if they rediscover their overall inventiveness and begin scoring more goals in open play too.

Judy Clark
Judy Clark

A philosopher and statistician who writes about the intersection of luck, probability, and human experience, with a background in behavioral science.