Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
