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Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.