Can the New Zealand rugby team find their winning form in the upcoming matches?

All Blacks team action
The New Zealand team have won 71% of their matches during the current decade

Seeking what would be just a fifth northern hemisphere clean sweep in their storied history, the All Blacks have embarked on their tour at an crucial period.

Fixtures against the Irish team, the Scottish side, England and the Welsh team await Scott Robertson's side across the upcoming weeks but, in addition to the possibility to equal the sides of 1978, 2005, 2008 and 2010 in the record books, the games will be used as a benchmark to evaluate the improvement of the side under a leader now 24 months into from beginning his tenure.

Team Issues

Concerns over a absence of an identifiable style, enduring debates over team picks and departures from the management team have all added to the perception that the most famous squad in the game is currently one in a time of change.

Most importantly, it is the drop in results from a previous peak set between the World Cups of the last decade that has led some to speculate that we have moved out of the period of New Zealand dominance.

Past Performance

Before their travel for the European tour, it was confirmed that next year, in the absence of the southern hemisphere competition, the All Blacks will play South Africa in a off-season matches called 'a unique competition'.

Historically the rugby's premier teams, there is clear agreement over who has recently got the better of what marketers have labeled 'Rugby's Greatest Rivalry'.

In recent seasons, the South African team have won a pair of global tournaments, three Rugby Championships and a series against the home nations team to be considered as the squad of their generation.

The All Blacks have maintained to beat the Irish team when it matters most, beating Saturday's opponents in the global competition of the past two tournaments. They have, at the same time, lost just two of the last fixtures with the English team, have defeated Wales in each game since over sixty years ago and have always been victorious by Scotland.

Evolving Landscape

But the decline of their status as the sport's measure of excellence will continue to rankle.

Whereas the All Blacks reigned supreme through the 2010s - achieving 87% of their international games, as well as claiming the World Cup on multiple times - the global tournament of the previous competition can now be viewed as when the hierarchical structure moved in the international rugby.

The All Blacks beat South Africa in their opening match of the championship in the host nation, but it was the South Africans who were finally victorious in Yokohama.

From that point, the New Zealand's winning percentage has fallen to 71%. The Springboks themselves lost ten of their subsequent fixtures but, from the beginning of last year, have achieved victory at a frequency (83%) to match even the former Kiwi champions.

Future All Blacks fixtures
The All Blacks will compete in four Tests against the Springboks in 2026

Recent Encounters

Over the comparable duration, the Springboks have won the majority of the recent encounters between the sides, comprising victory in the recent championship match.

In claiming their latest regional title, the Springboks administered a record 43-10 defeat on the All Blacks through 36 unanswered second-half points in Wellington, a score which has sparked another round of controversy concerning the direction of the side under their leader.

Perhaps most troubling for fans of the All Blacks will be that, allied to their usual power, the Springboks' triumph has come with an attacking verve more usually associated with their opposition team.

Style Evolution

At the time that the New Zealand team were at the zenith of their abilities 10 years ago, they were a clinical transition team equipped of dismantling opponents from every section of the pitch and at all times of the game.

Today, their attacking style is more ambiguous as Robertson, who has awarded numerous first caps during his recent tenure in control, tries to initially build the more prosaic core elements of a competitive squad.

It has already been confirmed that the backroom staff member in charge of scoring, their offensive coordinator, will depart his position after the fall series, making him the next individual of management team to depart after Leon MacDonald departed last year after just five Tests.

Expectations vs Reality

It was not only Robertson's success, but his approach, that was predicted to transfer from his former team when he took over after the 2023 World Cup but, to date, both continue to be a continuous improvement.

Ardie Savea in action
Ardie Savea was awarded global player of the year in last year

Business Factors

After investment group the company invested capital in All Blacks in the past, the subsequent announcement discussed the "pursuit of worldwide growth" for the organization.

That goal has perhaps been more difficult by the lack of a international celebrity. Their key player and the collection of related players continue to be household names in the rugby, but the concentration of key individuals has never been spread wider. Their leader is the sole All Black to win World Player of the Year in the past six seasons, in opposition to ten awards in multiple seasons between the mid-2000s.

Worldwide Reach

Alternatively, efforts have been undertaken to introduce the All Blacks into previously untapped markets.

The first leg of this 'Grand Slam' tour brings New Zealand not to Dublin but Chicago, a revisit to the location where Ireland achieved a historic win in the fixture during past tours.

Following the easing of Covid-19 travel restrictions, the New Zealand team have furthermore

Judy Clark
Judy Clark

A philosopher and statistician who writes about the intersection of luck, probability, and human experience, with a background in behavioral science.