A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
